Thursday, January 29, 2009

I'm a Ticking Time-Bomb

or I was anyway. I knew my parents made a bad call when they filled out that birth certificate!

According to LiveScience:

Boys in the United States with common names like Michael and David are less likely to commit crimes than those named Ernest or Ivan.

David E. Kalist and Daniel Y. Lee of Shippensburg University in Pennsylvania compared the first names of male juvenile delinquents to the first names of male juveniles in the population. The researchers constructed a popularity-name index (PNI) for each name. For example, the PNI for Michael is 100, the most frequently given name during the period. The PNI for David is 50, a name given half as frequently as Michael. The PNI is approximately 1 for names such as Alec, Ernest, Ivan, Kareem, and Malcolm.

Results show that, regardless of race, juveniles with unpopular names are more likely to engage in criminal activity. The least popular names were associated with juvenile delinquency among both blacks and whites.
Something that was drummed into me ad infinitum in my psychology and statistics classes was the maxim "correlation does not imply causation,"--something a science news service and its writers I'm sure know. But, the corollary, "correlation makes for more sensational headlines" trumps that. So buried in paragraph 5 we are told:
While the names are likely not the cause of crime, the researchers argue that "they are connected to factors that increase the tendency to commit crime, such as a disadvantaged home environment, residence in a county with low socioeconomic status, and households run by one parent."

"Also, adolescents with unpopular names may be more prone to crime because they are treated differently by their peers, making it more difficult for them to form relationships," according to a statement released by the journal's publisher. "Juveniles with unpopular names may also act out because they consciously or unconsciously dislike their names."
The scary part of this study is:
The findings could help officials " identify individuals at high risk of committing or recommitting crime, leading to more effective and targeted intervention programs," the authors conclude.
Racial profiling is out, but appellation profiling is a good move? (suddenly, Ann Coulter's obsession with a certain president's middle name isn't so crazy)

2 comments:

Lockheed said...

Reminds me of the commercials on here during the election season asking people to vote for more funding for preschool education noting the statistic that some higher percentage of kids who attend preschool do better in college... Um... yeah.

Scott McClare said...

Kind of makes you wonder whether the PMI of the middle name "Wayne" is visible with the naked eye . . .